World Economic Forum-Policy Pivot, Rising Threats: October 2024

Global growth is expected to remain stable yet underwhelming 

Global growth is expected to remain stable yet underwhelming. However, notable revisions have taken place beneath the surface since April 2024, with upgrades to the forecast for the United States offsetting downgrades to those for other advanced economies, in particular, the largest European countries. Likewise, in emerging market and developing economies, disruptions to production and shipping of commodities—especially oil—conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events have led to downward revisions to the outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia and that for sub-Saharan Africa.

These have been compensated for by upgrades to the forecast for emerging Asia, where surging demand for semiconductors and electronics, driven by significant investments in artificial intelligence, has bolstered growth, a trend supported by substantial public investment in China and India. Five years from now, global growth should reach 3.1 percent—a mediocre performance compared with the prepandemic average.

As global disinflation continues, services price inflation remains elevated in many regions, pointing to the importance of understanding sectoral dynamics and of calibrating monetary policy accordingly, as discussed in Chapter 2. With cyclical imbalances in the global economy waning, near-term policy priorities should be carefully calibrated to ensure a smooth landing.

At the same time, structural reforms are necessary to lift medium-term growth prospects, while support for the most vulnerable should be maintained. Chapter 3 discusses strategies to enhance the social acceptability of these reforms—a crucial prerequisite for successful implementation.