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US War On Iran

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Us War On Iran

 

The United States and Israel launched a major military campaign against Iran on Feb. 28, triggering a weekslong war that has spread to neighboring countries and roiled energy markets around the globe.

President Donald Trump announced a two-week cease-fire on April 7, and U.S. negotiations with Iranian officials are set to continue in Islamabad, Pakistan, this weekend.

The cease-fire appears fragile and Israel’s continued attacks against Iranian proxies in Lebanon, as well as Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz—where around a fifth of the world’s oil trade typically sails through—could test it. 

The shape of any longer-term peace deal also remains unclear. Iran’s current demands include continuing to control the Strait of Hormuz—which it militarized during the conflict—and the right to enrich uranium. Both of these are terms that the U.S. and Israel, who have long said they want to neutralize Iran’s nuclear threat, are unlikely to agree to. 

“NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and, the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE,” Trump said in a late-night Truth Social post on April 8, declaring that American military forces would remain in place “until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.”

The initial U.S. and Israeli air strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior Iranian officials. But rather than triggering a regime change, as the Trump Administration had openly called for, the late leader’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, took the reins, leaving Iran’s theocratic government in place. 

The conflict has endangered millions of lives across the Middle East and dealt a major blow to the global economy, disrupting some of the world’s most important energy hubs and key global aviation routes.

Here’s what to know about how the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran got to this point and what could come next.

Why did the U.S. and Israel strike Iran?

American and Israeli officials have offered conflicting explanations for why they attacked Iran. Immediately after the launch of “Operation Epic Fury” on Feb. 28,characterized the attack as defensive and suggested that it was intended to eliminate “imminent threats” from Iran. Israel described it as a “preemptive strike” aimed at neutralizing an anticipated missile attack from Iran. Neither the U.S. nor Israel provided evidence that Iran was planning to attack them. In private briefings to Congress, Trump Administration officials acknowledged that U.S. intelligence did not show Iran was preparing to strike before the U.S.-Israeli attacks; instead, they said Iran’s missiles and proxy forces posed a threat to U.S. personnel and allies in the region, although officials presented differing views over whether that threat was more general or imminent.

 

U.S. officials have described the offensive as aimed at crippling Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure and preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon after what the Trump Administration has since said were failed nuclear negotiations. The talks had resumed in early February after being stalled since June, when Israel attacked Iran and the U.S. joined Israel in strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly described the Iranian regime as an “existential threat” to Israel. Iran has maintained that it is not looking to develop a nuclear weapon, although the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog said Tehran had enriched uranium beyond civilian energy needs.

 

The U.S. and Iran have long been political adversaries, ending formal diplomatic ties after the 1979 Iranian Revolution which established the Islamic Republic of Iran. During Trump’s second term in office, the Trump Administration has ramped up pressure on Iran to abandon its nuclear program after Trump in his first term withdrew the U.S. from a nuclear deal the Barack Obama Administration agreed with Iran. In January, Trump also threatened the Iranian regime over its violent crackdown on anti-government protesters.

How has Iran responded?

Iran retaliated against the U.S. and Israel attacks by firing missiles and drones at Israel and at U.S. military installations across the region, including in Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Suspected Iranian strikes have also hit civilian sites and energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf, including Saudi Arabia’s oil refinery, a hotel in Dubai, and near airports in the U.A.E. and Kuwait. Iran also targeted American political centers in the region, including striking U.S. embassies in Riyadh and Kuwait City. Dozens of people have been killed by suspected Iranian strikes across the region.

To date, at least 13 U.S. service members have been killed in the war, including six who died in an Iranian retaliatory strike on a U.S. operations center in Kuwait. Hundreds of other soldiers were reportedly wounded in Iranian attacks. In early April, a U.S. Air Force F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran, forcing the two crew members on board to eject. The pilot was rescued quickly, but the second airman, a weapons systems officer, was stranded behind enemy lines for more than a day, as the American government feared Iranian forces could capture the airman. The U.S. launched an extensive rescue mission which successfully extracted him from mountainous terrain, where the airman was hiding.

Perhaps Iran’s most far-reaching form of retaliation has been its militarization of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which around a fifth of the world’s oil production passes. Iran, which controls the northern side of the strait and can block any traversing ships, has previously used the waterway as a political bargaining chip amid tensions. Following the U.S.-Israeli attack, Iran effectively closed Hormuz to most vessels, with Iranian forces threatening that any ship passing through without Iran’s permission would be “set ablaze.” 

Why are the U.S. attacks controversial?

Trump has repeatedly made aggressive threats to destroy civilian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, in Iran—actions that would constitute war crimes under the Geneva Conventions. 

“A whole civilization will die tonight,” Trump threatened if Iran did not agree to a cease-fire deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. E.T. on April 7. Trump’s threats prompted outcry from world leaders and international bodies including the U.N. Dozens of lawmakers called for invoking the 25th Amendment, which establishes procedures for presidential succession and for replacing or declaring a President unable to perform their duties, and raised concerns over Trump’s judgment and stability.American attacks have also been scrutinized after a strike on a school in Minab, Iran, killed more than 150 children and staff, with evidence pointing to a U.S. missile. Israel has also carried out strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure and populated areas, including bombing oil depots in Tehran and attacking Iran’s South Pars gas field. More than 1,600 Iranian civilians have been killed in the war, according to human rights organizations.

 

Has the conflict widened?

Neighboring Lebanon has been drawn into the conflict as Israel launched a ferocious response to strikes by an Iranian-aligned paramilitary group, Hezbollah. The Israeli attacks on Beirut and southern Lebanon have so far killed more than 1,700 people and injured thousands of others, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. Israel is also reportedly preparing for an extensive ground invasion of Lebanon.

Lebanon has condemned both Israel and Hezbollah for the attacks, urging them not to use Lebanon as a “platform for proxy wars.” Pakistan initially said the two-week cease-fire applied to “Lebanon and elsewhere,” but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Trump rejected the claim, and Israeli strikes on civilian areas of Lebanon have continued. Meanwhile, Syria accused Hezbollah of firing artillery shells at Syrian army positions near Damascus on March 10 and said it would respond to any attack on its territory. The statement came a day after Syrian President Ahmed al-Shara said the war in the Middle East was “an existential threat to the entire region,” according to Syria’s official news agency.

 

How has the rest of the world reacted to the war?

Immediately after the first wave of American and Israeli strikes in Iran, world leaders urged restraint, and multilateral institutions like the United Nations and the European Union called for de-escalation. The U.N. Security Council considered a draft resolution that would have encouraged states to coordinate defensive efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz and demanded that Iran cease attacks on merchant vessels, but the resolution was vetoed by China and Russia.

The Gulf States have historically avoided direct confrontation with Iran and repeatedly rejected being dragged into a regional conflict. In the weeks leading up to the U.S. attack, Oman had been mediating indirect talks between Washington and Tehran. But as neighboring states found themselves in Iran’s crosshairs after Tehran targeted U.S. bases and civilian sites across the region, the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, and Kuwait, convened an emergency meeting to condemn Iran’s actions and “reserve[d] their legal right to respond.”

A week after the conflict began, French President Emmanuel Macron committed 10 warships to the Eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz in addition to two ships already deployed to the region—a mobilization of the French navy that Macron called “unprecedented.” Italy also said it would deploy naval ships to defend Cyprus after it faced a retaliatory Iranian attack and air defense weapons to Gulf allies. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, of which the U.S. is a member, supports the military campaign against Iran, according to its secretary-general Mark Rutte, although the alliance said it will not get involved.

Trump has threatened to pull the U.S. out of NATO after some of the U.S.’s allies have shown hesitation over being dragged into the war. After a public rebuke by Trump, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer allowed the U.S. to use some British military bases for “defensive” strikes against Iran, including a base in Cyprus that was hit in a suspected retaliatory Hezbollah drone strike, but the U.K. refused to allow the U.S. to use its bases to attack Iran’s civilian and energy infrastructure. Spain was more resolute: when Trump threatened to cut off bilateral trade after the European nation rejected the American military’s use of its bases, its Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez responded, “No to war.”

How has the war impacted the global economy?

The war has disrupted the global oil and natural gas trade, as well as impacting global supplies of key commodities including fertilizer and helium—used in high-tech chip manufacturing and medical imaging. Days into the conflict, crude oil prices surged above $100 a barrel for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, even as Trump Administration officials brushed off concerns over rising gas prices. Analysts told TIME that the threat of prolonged conflict has prompted shippers to either dock to avoid risks or to jack up costs, leading to price surges. Some refineries declared force majeure in the second week of the war, which releases them of their contractual obligations. Even a short disruption to some of the world’s biggest LNG and oil suppliers will force a reshuffle within global energy sectors to curtail or meet demand, analysts told TIME. Persistent uncertainty around maritime safety in the region may also lead to a more lasting geopolitical risk premium even after the end of the war. 

Americans have seen higher prices at the pump while the U.S. agricultural industry has warned that potential shortages in fertilizer supply could lead to higher grocery prices. Asian countries that rely on Middle Eastern exports have been particularly vulnerable to energy disruptions. From Bangkok to Bangladesh, governments across Asia started rationing fuel, dispensing subsidies, and implementing fuel-saving measures to manage the energy crisis. Over the course of the conflict, Iran struck deals with some countries, including China, Iraq, and Malaysia, allowing their vessels safe passage through the strait.

 

How has the war impacted travel?

The war has caused widespread travel disruption. In the days after the war began, several Gulf nations closed their airspaces, and some international airports in the Gulf, many of which serve as key transit points for global travel, also sustained damage from Iran’s counteroffensives. Governments around the world scrambled to evacuate their citizens from the region, and Americans were urged to leave the Middle East initially on limited commercial flights and later on government-chartered flights. Most Gulf airlines have since resumed flights with reduced commercial schedules and for repatriation efforts.

 

Jet fuel prices also rose sharply amid the conflict, driven both by fears of supply disruption in the Middle East and instability around the Strait of Hormuz. Rising crude prices feed directly into higher aviation fuel costs and airlines have responded by adjusting routes to avoid airspace over the Persian Gulf that has for years been among the busiest overflight routes linking Europe and Asia, adding fuel surcharges to ticket prices, and even canceling flights.

How long could the war last?

Over the course of the six weeks of war, Trump has offered conflicting timelines on how long the conflict will take to resolve. Early on Feb. 28, after the initial strikes, he told Axios that he had the choice to “go long” or “end it in two to three days.” The day after the first salvo, Trump told the Daily Mail that the campaign in Iran would take about four weeks. 

In a March 2 Pentagon press briefing, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine said the campaign was “not a single overnight operation,” and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the Administration would “never hang a time frame” on the war and that the progress could “move up” or “move back.”

On March 9, Trump told CBS that “the war is very complete” and could come to an end soon, but he also told Republican lawmakers on the same day that the U.S. is “more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory” and would not relent until the Iranian regime and military apparatus are defeated.

Read More: After Khamenei: What Iran, and the World, Face Next

How many Iranian officials have been killed in U.S.-Israeli attacks?

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who served as Iran’s Supreme Leader for more than 36 years, the longest of any leader in the Middle East, was killed in the Feb. 28 strikes. The U.S. and Israel have also killed dozens of other Iranian officials, including the country’s top security official Ali Larijani, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander-in-Chief Mohammad Pakpour, IRGC Intelligence Chief Majid Khademi, Iranian Armed Forces Chief-of-Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi and Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh.

Khamenei strongly rejected what the theocratic regime saw as “Western imperialism,” positioning Iran as a counterweight to American, Israeli, and Saudi influence in the region. Under Khamenei’s rule, Iran funded militant groups, including Hezbollah, to function as regional proxies. Khamenei’s detractors rejoiced upon hearing his death, citing decades of repression and crackdowns on expression and protests under his rule.

Read More: Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader Who Built a De Facto Military Dictatorship, Killed in U.S.-Israeli Strikes

Who is leading Iran now?

Mojtaba Khamenei, the late Supreme Leader’s second-eldest son, succeeded him as Iran’s leader. The 56-year-old did not previously hold any official position, but was a reputed power broker behind the scenes, rumored to have enjoyed the same close support that his father had long maintained with the IRGC. The new leader has not been seen in public since his appointment, and Trump officials have speculated that he is wounded or even dead. “I don’t know if he’s even alive. So far, nobody’s been able to show him,” Trump told NBC in mid-March. 

After many of Iran’s senior leaders were killed, Iran appears to have shifted authority to decentralized units that have launched retaliatory strikes, protecting Iran’s command system from decapitation strikes and making it harder for the U.S. and Israel to thwart attacks through a “mosaic” defense system.

Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment doubled as a slight against Iran’s attackers: Trump previously told TIME that he did not want another Khamenei in power and told Axios that Mojtaba was a “lightweight” an “unacceptable” choice. Trump also said that any leader that did not have the U.S.’ prior approval is “not going to last long.” As the war dragged on, however, Trump claimed the U.S. had already achieved regime change in Iran, and in an April 1 presidential address, he said Iran’s new leadership is “less radical and much more reasonable.”

What’s the legal status of the war?

Lawmakers and international observers have raised concerns about the legal basis for the U.S.-Israeli strikes. While the U.S. President is also the country’s Commander in Chief, his authority to order military action is limited to repelling attacks or deterring a clearly imminent attack, an expert told TIME, and so far there has been little evidence that is the case. For the President to launch an attack on a sovereign state, he is required to get authorization from Congress, which has the exclusive power to declare war. Military action without congressional approval is restricted by the 1973 War Powers Resolution, which limits the operation to 60 days.  

Although Congress does not need to take action to declare the strikes illegal, lawmakers have again found their ability to constrain Trump limited, especially after military action has already been taken. A number of attempts by Democrats to block further military action against Iran without congressional authorization have failed. Trump has largely been able to carry out military action without congressional approval or significant recourse, including the military raid on Venezuela, strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and Pacific, and strikes on several countries, including Iran.   

What do Americans think of the war?

Several polls carried out in the immediate days after the U.S.-Israeli attack suggest that most Americans disapprove of the war, although sentiment towards the war has been divided along party lines. According to most polls, most Republicans support the military action, while most Democrats and Independents do not. 

Across the board, 69% of Americans, according to a CBS News poll, said Trump needs to get authorization from Congress to continue military operations against Iran. A majority of those surveyed also felt the Trump Administration had not provided a clear explanation for the U.S.’s objectives in Iran.

 Around a month in, polls continued to reflect that a majority of Americans disapproved of the war, with more Republicans and Republican-leaning independents supportive of the war and more Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents against it. Across American cities, people have also taken to the streets to protest the war, including in New York City, Los Angeles, Miami, Chicago, and D.C. At the same time, thousands of others have rallied to celebrate the death of Khamenei and call for the end of the Iranian regime.  

Reference: Times.com 

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